Wednesday, April 5, AD 30 seems hard to reconcile with several important chronological elements:
The governorship of Pontius Pilate
Pontius Pilate served as prefect of Judea from AD 26 to 36. If Jesus had died on April 5, AD 30, that would imply a public ministry that began very early, probably around 27-28. Yet according to (Luke 3.1-2), John the Baptist begins his ministry during the fifteenth year of Tiberius’ reign, generally placed in 28-29. A crucifixion as early as April AD 30 considerably reduces the time needed for the development of John’s ministry and then of Jesus’.
The career of Caiaphas
Caiaphas was high priest from AD 18 to 36. April 5, AD 30 therefore remains technically compatible with his pontificate. However, the Gospels present Caiaphas as a figure firmly established in his religious authority (John 11.49-53), which fits better with a slightly later period.
The duration of John the Baptist’s ministry
The Gospel accounts suggest that John the Baptist exercised his ministry long enough to gain great renown among the people and to attract the attention of the religious authorities (Matthew 3.5-6; Luke 3.15). A crucifixion in April AD 30 tends to compress this period considerably.
The Lukan synchronisms
Luke places the beginning of John the Baptist’s ministry in “the fifteenth year of the reign of Tiberius Caesar” (Luke 3.1). According to the method of calculation generally adopted, this indication leads to around AD 28-29. If one then adds John’s ministry and the various Passovers mentioned in the Gospel of John, which seem to indicate a public ministry of about three years, the year 33 appears more natural than the year 30.
The astronomical data concerning 14 Nisan
14 Nisan corresponds to the full moon preceding the Jewish Passover. Modern astronomical calculations make it possible to identify the possible dates of a 14 Nisan falling on a Friday, in accordance with the Gospel accounts (John 19.31). For the year AD 30, 14 Nisan generally corresponds to Friday, April 7 and not to Wednesday, April 5. This latter date therefore does not seem compatible with the Jewish calendar framework usually accepted.
Taken together, these various elements make the date of Wednesday, April 5, AD 30 hard to sustain against the hypothesis of Friday, April 1, AD 33, which harmonizes more naturally with all the scriptural, historical and astronomical data.
_ It should also be recalled that the Jewish calendar of the 1st century was essentially observational and not calculated in advance:
- the beginning of the month depended on the actual observation of the first lunar crescent;
- the intercalation of months took into account the ripening state of the barley (aviv).
Under these conditions, it seems difficult to reconstruct with absolute certainty a precise 14 Nisan relying solely on the fixed rabbinic calendar established several centuries later.
For all these reasons, Yoma 39b does not seem to us a methodologically sufficient basis for establishing a precise date of the crucifixion, still less that of April 5, AD 30.
By contrast, the date of Friday, April 1, AD 33 seems to meet the various constraints far more coherently:
- a plausible 14 Nisan,
- a Friday,
- a lunar configuration compatible with the observations at Jerusalem,
- consistency with the data concerning Pontius Pilate, Caiaphas and Tiberius,
- as well as with the various Passovers mentioned in the Gospel of John.
However, in the current state of our analysis, the interpretation of Yoma 39b that you propose does not seem to us to allow the date of April 5, AD 30 to be anchored historically. The symbolism of the “forty years” does not seem to us a chronological tool precise enough to establish such a dating.